Will The Bombshell OpenAI Chatbot Be The End Of Google?
In 1997, chess master Garry Kasparov faced off against IBM's "Deep Blue" chess computer in New York City as millions followed online. Deep Blue won, effectively ending the era of man and ushering in the era of the machine. Today, you can download chess programs like Stockfish on your smartphone that will wipe the floor with the best chess players in the world. And now, the Internet is awash with speculation after the release of a bombshell AI chatbot from OpenAI. I've tested it out and it's scary good. The bot has gathered over 1 million users in less than a week (Instagram, for example, took about 3 months!). Prominent venture capitalists have issued stark predictions that AI could put Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) out of business. It feels a million miles away from the quiet Mediterranean town I'm currently writing this from, but having tried out the chatbot, there's an unmistakable feeling that there's something big happening here. I'm going to defend Google here due to the company's incumbent status and heavy investment in AI.To get more news about
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I recently went on the popular Millenial Investing Podcast and gave a full-throated recommendation for Google stock. For reasons we'll get into below, I believe Google will be the most valuable company in the world in five years' time and could keep the crown for decades. This is partially despite advances in the AI space and partially because of them.
It gets crazier when you actually test it out. And what better way to test its social skills than asking for advice on talking to girls!
The bot recommended simple, friendly dialogue and focusing on shared interests. Actually not bad! It also recommends buying your potential "soulmate" a drink if in a bar or club. If the conversation goes well it recommends buying them another, although the computer steps in to warn you to be aware of your limits with consuming alcohol (lol). It's uncanny how the AI is able to understand things like social situations but is also able to do high-level mathematics or write poems for you. It's wrong sometimes, sometimes hilariously so, but the potential is there for any number of applications in a business setting.
I asked my friend Hailey Yoon, co-founder of Dubai-based tech startup IO21 about this, and to my surprise, she said that this is not overblown– she believes ChatGPT is a bona fide threat to Google. She went on to say that the documentation for the chatbot is excellent, which is rare for this type of product. This makes the bot even more powerful than it appears at first glance because it can rapidly learn and improve.
I'm much more constructive on Google's future than some industry observers, but it's fascinating to see the opinions of very successful people in various industries on the potential of this. Garry Kasparov suggests that AI could replace a surprising number of white-collar college-educated employees, much in the way that globalization crushed manufacturing employees previously. On a bit of a darker note, Twitter users have been able to seek advice on committing burglary and hacking the Pentagon by convincing the computer it's just for a screenplay. Also, dare I say, after engaging it in some conversation, I believe the machine has taken on some of the politically correct, corporate-liberal tendencies of Silicon Valley. It's not necessarily a bad thing for a chatbot to be polite, but it gets back to age-old debates over censorship, critical thinking, and the ability of minorities to dissent from the majority.
I asked the chatbot the best way to make a million dollars in the stock market and it recommended buying and holding a widely diversified portfolio of stocks. That's not a bad answer, but there's no real insight to be gained there – the machine has simply reverted to conventional wisdom. I pressed it on whether it would recommend any more specific strategies and it demurred, basically saying it wasn't up-to-date enough to answer. I guess my own career is safe for now. I'd be more worried if I were a pharmacist or an entry-level software engineer.
Google is down a lot this year, but it's from worries over the macroeconomic picture and the Fed, not fears of being put out of business by AI. One thing that AI probably doesn't understand is that if you're a venture capitalist, you have a strong incentive to make bold claims on Twitter. The main reason that this is so is that you charge investors 2% management fees and 20% of profits if they invest in your "disruption fund" or whatever you choose to call it. OpenAI's chatbot is spooky good, but Google has massive market share already, has invested substantially in AI with projects like DeepMind and AlphaGo, and has a fundamentally different purpose than the chatbot. One Google engineer was even put on leave for claiming that their AI was "sentient."
The main issue with the chatbot in my mind is that it lives and dies by its algorithm to generate an answer, whereas Google presents different sources which are generally ranked by how many other websites have linked to it. This makes Google search an extremely effective tool for finding accurate information by cross-checking different sources. Google really shines when consumers are searching for information about their needs and Google is able to match them with businesses that can match those needs. Google makes the lion's share of its money from advertising, hence the dire warnings from various VCs about their business.
For an example of a cash-cow keyword for Google, let's say someone searches "personal injury attorney Miami-Dade County." Personal injury attorneys are big business in Miami, consumers generally search for them with the intent to do business, and Google is the dominant search provider. Therefore, law firms are willing to pay big bucks for clicks from search terms like "car wreck attorney" or "personal injury lawyer." OpenAI could potentially compete here, but Google already has an elegant system set up. Firms compete for placement based on their SEO which Google monitors to make sure the playing field is fair, or businesses can place ads and pay per click. This is an extreme example because the clicks here are incredibly valuable, but it goes to show that Google generally does a good job of giving users what they're looking for. There's a lot of debate now over whether the content created by OpenAI would be attractive to advertisers. Time will tell.
