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Автор Тема: Morning Market Review for 07.04.2022  (Прочитано 1078 раз)
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« : 11 Апрель 2022, 07:54:00 »

Morning Market Review for 07.04.2022


The European currency shows a slight increase against the US dollar during the Asian session, again testing the level of 1.0900 for a breakout. EUR/USD is trying to recover from a 5-day decline, which brought the euro back from local highs since March 1 to local lows since March 8. The European currency remains under pressure amid deteriorating economic growth prospects in the region, associated with a sharp increase in inflationary pressures. Analysts' forecasts remain disappointing as well, as the EU is considering imposing new sanctions against the Russian economy, which could further spur prices up. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published yesterday turned out to be negative. The volume of Industrial Orders in Germany in February slowed down in annual terms from 8.2% to 2.9%. On a monthly basis, orders fell 2.2% after rising 2.3% in January. Market forecasts assumed a decrease of only 0.2%. The Producer Price Index in the euro area in February rose by 1.1% after rising by 5.1% a month earlier. In annual terms, producer inflation accelerated from 30.6% to 31.4%, which was only 0.1% lower than market forecasts.To get more news about samtrade, you can visit wikifx.com official website.

The British pound is trading upward against the US currency during the morning session, testing 1.3080 for a breakout. The growth in the instrument is due to technical factors, while fundamentally the picture changes only slightly. The EU and the UK have previously announced the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian economy, which, in particular, provide for a ban on the import of coal and a number of food products into the EU. There is no talk of an embargo on oil and natural gas yet, despite the extremely ambiguous position among EU members. One way or another, experts believe that the new sanctions will lead to another increase in inflationary risks not only in Russia, but also in Europe. Meanwhile, yesterday the British currency was supported by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Construction PMI in March remained at the same level of 59.1 points, while analysts expected it to decline to 57.8 points. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on the UK House Price Index from Halifax for March, as well as a speech by the representative of the Bank of England Huw Pill.

The Australian dollar shows a rather active decline during the Asian session, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve published the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), in which market participants noted an even more resolute attitude of the regulator regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the country. In particular, the Committee spoke in favor of reducing the Fed's balance sheet by 95 billion dollars a month, although earlier experts assumed that the volume could be only about 60 billion dollars. The dollar was also supported by comments from US Federal Reserve Board member Lael Brainard, who warned that the agency may need more than one rate hike by 0.50% at once during 2022. Some pressure on the positions of the Australian currency today is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Export volumes in February showed zero dynamics after an increase of 8% in January. Imports at the same time rose sharply by 12% after falling by 2% a month earlier. As a result, the trade surplus in February fell sharply from 12.891 billion to 7.457 billion Australian dollars, which was significantly below the market's expectations of 12.000 billion Australian dollars. AiG Services PMI in March fell from 60 to 56.2 points.

The US dollar is developing a flat dynamics of trading in pair with the Japanese yen in Asian trading, consolidating near 123.60. Despite a rather active attempt to grow the day before, the US dollar remains practically unchanged against the Japanese currency, signaling an increase in demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency. The published minutes of the US Federal Reserve, as well as a number of comments from the regulator's representatives, signaled in favor of a more rapid tightening of monetary policy in the US in the near future. In particular, already in May, investors expect a rate hike by 50 basis points at once, as well as the launch of a quantitative tightening program worth almost 100 billion dollars a month. In turn, inflation in Japan remains significantly below the regulator's target levels, and therefore there are still no prerequisites for changing monetary policy. Published today macroeconomic statistics from Japan has a slight downward pressure on the yen. The Coincident Index in February fell from 95.6 to 95.5 points, while analysts expected it to rise to 96.4 points. The Leading Index for the same period decreased from 102.5 to 100.9 points, while the forecast was for growth to 103 points.

Gold prices are changing little during the Asian session, holding near 1920.00. Traders are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the appearance of indicator signals. In the meantime, the situation on the market is not changing much, since there are no prerequisites for the completion of Russia's military operation on the territory of Ukraine yet. Moreover, the economic outlook is only getting worse as new sanctions against the Russian economy are introduced. In particular, the day before, the EU announced its intention to expand the list of goods prohibited from import from Russia, but analysts report that so far they have not been able to agree on a new package of sanctions. Among other things, a ban on coal imports and significant restrictions on the supply of agricultural goods, in particular potash fertilizers, are expected. Certain food products may also be subject to sanctions. All in all, according to experts, the new restrictions could cost the Russian economy about 9 billion euros a year. Meanwhile, the pressure on the position of gold is exerting an increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) published the day before reflected the readiness of the regulator for a faster tightening of monetary policy, including through the launch of a quantitative tightening program. Similar sentiments can be traced in the speeches of US Federal Reserve officials, for example, Lael Brainard, who is known for her rather reserved
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